<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
<ManualTopic ID="/baanerp/cp/onlinemanual/000112" xml:lang="zh-cn">
	<Header>
		<Title xmlns:HTML="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40">预测方法：时序分析</Title>
		<Keyword ContextSensitive="No"><Level1>预测方法：时序分析</Level1>
		</Keyword>
		<Keyword ContextSensitive="No"><Level1>时序分析</Level1>
		</Keyword>
	</Header>
	<GeneralSection><Paragraph class="Default">Infor ERP 将根据<GUIRef href="/baanerp/cp/domains/rpd.fcmd#tsa" role="option">时序分析</GUIRef>预测方法，基于平均需求以及任何此前定义的趋势变化和季节性变化计算需求预测。</Paragraph>
		<Paragraph class="Default">需求预测的计算方法如下：</Paragraph>
		<Paragraph class="Default">没有趋势变化：</Paragraph>
		<Formula space-and-orientation="indented-estimated"><Paragraph class="Default">TD(t) = AV</Paragraph>
		</Formula>
		<Paragraph class="Default">具有线性趋势变化：</Paragraph>
		<Formula space-and-orientation="indented-estimated"><Paragraph class="Default">TD(t) = CS + TF * t</Paragraph>
		</Formula>
		<Paragraph class="Default">具有递增趋势变化：</Paragraph>
		<Formula space-and-orientation="indented-estimated"><Paragraph class="Default">TD(t) = BS * TF ^ (t-1)</Paragraph>
		</Formula>
		<Paragraph class="Default">具有固定的季节性变化：</Paragraph>
		<Formula space-and-orientation="indented-estimated"><Paragraph class="Default">FD(t) = TD(t) + SF(t)</Paragraph>
		</Formula>
		<Paragraph class="Default">具有递增季节性变化：</Paragraph>
		<Formula space-and-orientation="indented-estimated"><Paragraph class="Default">FD(t) = TD(t) * SF(t)</Paragraph>
		</Formula>
		<Paragraph class="Default">其中：</Paragraph>
		<TABLE border="1" borderstyle="default" space-and-orientation="indented-estimated"><TBODY><TR><TD width="16" rowspan="1" colspan="1">AV</TD>
					<TD width="305" rowspan="1" colspan="1">平均需求 (*)</TD>
				</TR>
				<TR><TD width="16" rowspan="1" colspan="1">CS</TD>
					<TD width="305" rowspan="1" colspan="1">固定需求</TD>
				</TR>
				<TR><TD width="16" rowspan="1" colspan="1">BS</TD>
					<TD width="305" rowspan="1" colspan="1">基本需求（期段 1 的估计需求）</TD>
				</TR>
				<TR><TD width="16" rowspan="1" colspan="1">TF</TD>
					<TD width="305" rowspan="1" colspan="1">趋势因子</TD>
				</TR>
				<TR><TD width="16" rowspan="1" colspan="1">SF(t)</TD>
					<TD width="305" rowspan="1" colspan="1">期段 t 的季节性因子</TD>
				</TR>
				<TR><TD width="16" rowspan="1" colspan="1">TD(t)</TD>
					<TD width="305" rowspan="1" colspan="1">期段 t 的基于趋势的需求</TD>
				</TR>
				<TR><TD width="16" rowspan="1" colspan="1">FD(t)</TD>
					<TD width="305" rowspan="1" colspan="1">期段 t 的需求预测</TD>
				</TR>
			</TBODY>
		</TABLE>
		<Paragraph class="Default">(*) 平均需求是期段的历史需求数字的总和除以具有需求历史记录的期段数。</Paragraph>
	</GeneralSection>
	<RelatedTopics><SectionTitle>相关主题</SectionTitle>
		<RelTopic><Link href="/baanerp/cp/onlinemanual/000079" role="manual">需求预测的算法</Link>
		</RelTopic>
		<RelTopic><Link href="/baanerp/cp/onlinemanual/000321" role="manual">预测方法</Link>
		</RelTopic>
	</RelatedTopics>
</ManualTopic>
